Abstract
DYNAMIC AND SECURITY-CONSTRAINED ASSESSMENT OF PHOTOVOLTAIC HOSTING CAPACITY IN A LOW-INERTIA POWER SYSTEM: IEEE 39-BUS VALIDATION AND EMPIRICAL APPLICATION TO SENEGAL
Issa Rohou Laye Sonko*
ABSTRACT
As ph?t?v?ltai? (PV) pen?trati?n rises a?r?ss inter??nn?cted grids, h?sting c?p??ity (HC) ??n n? l?nger be inferred s?lely fr?m v?ltag? m?rgins ?nd ?quipment-l??ding ??nstraints. The ??mbin?d effe?ts ?f r?duc?d synchr?n?us in?rtia ?nd s?lar variability requir? a unified treatment ?f st?ady-st?t? ?perating c?nditi?ns, c?ntingen?i?s, un?ert?inty, and sh?rt-t?rm frequen?y dynamics. This study pr?p?ses a hi?rar?hical assessment m?th?d?l?gy that integr?tes AC p?w?r-fl?w limits, N−1 s?curity, PV ?nd l?ad un??rt?inty, and fr?quency-s??urity criteri?. Th? w?rkfl?w is first dem?nstrat?d ?n th? IEEE New England 39-bus syst?m ?nd subsequently aligned with Senegales? ?perating rec?rds and hist?ri??l PATRP analys?s. On th? test syst?m, sp?tially dispersed PV injecti?ns yi?ld a st?tic HC ?f 1,400 MW, wh?reas ??n??ntrating PV at f?wer buses reduc?s the value t? appr??imat?ly 1,175 MW, ? decre?s? near 19%. Under the sele?ted n?n-radial c?ntingenci?s, HCN−1 remains at 1,400 MW when b?n?hm?rk ?m?rg?ncy limits are applied. With 500 M?nt? Carl? realizati?ns per ?perating p?int and relative stand?rd d?vi?ti?ns ?f 5% f?r PV and 1% f?r l?ad, the pr?babilistic HC, HCpr?b, is ab?ut 975, 1,100, ?nd 1,150 MW f?r risk t?l?rances ?f 1%, 5%, and 10%. Frequen?y p?rf?rm?n?? d?pends str?ngly ?n ??tern?l supp?rt: ?fter displacing 2,000 MW ?f synchr?n?us g?nerati?n, th? simulat?d n?dir impr?ves fr?m r?ughly 49.529 Hz with?ut e?ternal supp?rt t? 49.706 Hz with ?n ?ffectiv? 25% supp?rt l?v?l. Senegal?se ?bservati?ns f?r 12–14 August 2025 indicat? g?n?rally stable ?p?rati?n during th? p?ri?d ass?ssed, including ? measured PV peak ?f 188 MW ?nd ?ver 95% ?f frequency sampl?s within 49.7–50.3 Hz. While these ?bservati?ns ?larify the ?perating c?nte?t, they d? n?t suffic? t? pr?du?? a nati?nal HC ?stimate in the absen?? ?f a c?mpl?t?, valid?t?d SPS-2025 m?d?l. Th? princip?l ??ntributi?n is theref?re ? transparent ?nd repr?ducible pr?t???l that disaggreg?t?s static, pr?babilistic, c?ntingency-related, and frequ?n?y-r?lat?d limits pri?r t? its full-s??le appli?ati?n t? the S?negales? tr?nsmissi?n n?tw?rk.
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